2021-06-23 21:55:14
> If Premier Access was over-performing, Chapek and co. might be more likely to commit to it beyond the next fiscal year. If Premier Access was performing abysmally, Chapek and co might use its earnings calls to drive home (...) [that] “they’re committed to supporting exhibitors and the theatrical window going forward”. What’s far more likely is that Premier Access is doing fine.
> Take Cruella. During the film’s opening weekend, there was a 37% increase in Disney+ signups. (...) Of those signups, about 18% purchased the film. (...) This is about 58% as many purchases as Mulan in September 2020 and 72% as many as Raya and the Last Dragon in March 2021, but (...) Disney isn’t just going to sacrifice that revenue.
> If they’re already subscribed to Disney+ (and if they’re paying $30 at home to check out a new Pixar or Marvel movie, they’re more than likely already subscribed to Disney+), they might be willing to pay more per month to watch a new movie at home “for free” the minute it’s out. If there’s a new Premier Access title each month, too, that just makes the “deal” even sweeter.
> Hypothetically, Disney+ Premium has an ARPU of $10. This is more than double the current $4. (...) That ARPU is in-line with HBO Max’s ARPU figure ($11.72) for a $15 plan, and just under Netflix’s ARPU ($14.25 in the US and Canada). (...) Much like HBO Max’s $15 plan becoming the “premium” version, which currently uses day-of movie releases (Godzilla vs Kong, Suicide Squad, Dune) as a selling point. (...) This creates an annual revenue of $82.3 million. That’s neck and neck with the $30 Premier Access.
> Cruella does make sense for Premier Access. So does Raya and the Last Dragon. Jungle Cruise is a possibility. (...) Movies that demand audiences in theaters will return there exclusively for 45 days. Take Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings or The Eternals. Everything else becomes “optional,” which is executive code for, “You’re going to give us money somehow — you choose.”
> [Solo became] a reminder that (...) there are movies — even Star Wars movies — that don’t need to go to theaters. (...) The turnout for Mandalorian just one year later proved that Star Wars fans were hungry for new, non-Skywalker storytelling. (...) If Solo had been released in 2020, however, as an exclusive on Disney+, would that have brought in more curious subscribers?
https://musingsonmouse.substack.com/p/disney-premium-the-future-of-premier
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