Malaysian Palm Oil Council Russia

2021-06-15 21:20:11

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2021-06-15 11:43:19 *UOB Kay Hian: Session with Mr Dorab Mistry on 2H21 Vegoil Price Outlook*

*Bs factor supporting the SBO price - Biden, Biodiesel and Biofuels.* With Biden admiration to push green fuels, it is likely that the SBO will continue to stay elevated. Even though there are some news on the relief for the fossil fuels refiners, Mr Dorab mentioned that it is unlikely to happen Biden as a strong green energy believer. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) may release the proposal about the biodiesel waiver by end of Jul 21 and US government to make a decision by Nov 21. Anticipate this agenda will continue to affect vegetable oil price movement in 2H21.

*Bull factors that continue to support the palm oil price:*

- Covid-19 situation in India is improving drastically. Demand of vegetable oil is expecting to improve but the consumer demand is low as people might have overbought for household consumption. On top of the, the local mustards production is good this year.

- Expect China to be the largest importer of soybean and palm oil on the back of food security concern.

*Bear factors that may cap the palm oil price:*

- Indonesia palm oil production is expected to be good, despite Malaysia production may not as good due to labour shortage issue.

- Bumper sun seed crop from Ukraine and Russia which to be harvested in Aug-Sep 21 that may take up some of palm oil market share with cheaper sunflower oil price. With these, India might shift to SFO once the crop are being harvested and most likely India might be able to buy at a discount with huge supply coming into the market.

*Key highlights:*

- *Anticipate CPO price to rebound quickly from here, about RM200-RM250/mt of upside and potentially overshoot to RM300-RM400/mt.* However, the might see some downside in Aug/Sep with production pick up, especially from Indonesia.

- The sharp sell down of CPO prices over the weekend was overdone. The CPO price weakness mainly driven by rumors and expectation, which is 1) anticipation of increase in palm oil production, 2) potential weak palm oil export in Jun 21 and 3) rumors of US biodiesel mandate changes.

- Key price factors to watch out in 2H21 : 1) US biodiesel waivers ; 2) US weather in Jul/Aug 21 which may impact the soybean production and 3) Indonesia levy and duty Открыть/Комментировать

2021-06-15 11:33:19 Malaysia: A resurgence of Covid-19 infections in No. 2 palm oil grower Malaysia is set to exacerbate a labor shortage and curb production of the world’s most-consumed cooking oil. “The crux of the issue is the labor shortage. We have lost of about 20% to 30% of our potential production because of this,” according to Nageeb Wahab, chief executive at the Malaysian Palm Oil Association. That means Malaysian palm oil planters may now miss estimates for yields to rebound in the second half, which were made due to the annual seasonal high cycle that typically begins in July, and the initial assumption that restrictions on workers’ intake would have been eased. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board last week reported January-May production is about 6% smaller than a year ago. (Source: The Edge) Открыть/Комментировать

2021-06-15 10:56:51 Открыть/Комментировать

2021-06-14 12:28:09 Malaysia - 1-15 June vs. 1-15 May palm oil export (in mt) _*Rumour only*_

Amspec: 650k vs 695k (-45k or down 6.47%)

ITS: 658,830 vs 685,114 (-26,284 or down 3.84%) Открыть/Комментировать

2021-06-14 11:06:23 Malaysia - 1-15 June vs. 1-15 May palm oil export (in mt) *Rumour only*
ITS: 658,830 vs 685,114 (-26,284 or down 3.84%) Открыть/Комментировать

2021-06-14 09:56:17 SINGAPORE, June 14 - Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a sixth straight session on Monday, hitting their lowest in more than four months, as rival soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) declined.

The benchmark palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 205 ringgit, or 5.7%, to 3,454 ringgit a tonne in early trade, heading for its biggest daily drop in a month.

Last week, the contract posted its first weekly drop in three weeks, falling 11.3%.

"Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange crude palm oil futures are trading sharply lower following bearish momentum in CBOT soy oil futures," said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oils broker Sunvin Group.

CBOT soybean and soyoil prices fell more than 2% each, weighed down by a possible U.S. move to reduce biodiesel production.

Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

Palm oil may test a support at 3,602 ringgit to 3,635 ringgit per tonne, a break below which could open the way towards the range of 3,447-3,506 ringgit, Reuters technicals analyst Wang Tao said.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Global shares held firm near record highs while U.S. bond yields flirted with three-month lows as investors expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its dovish mantra later this week.

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/world/vegoils-palm-extends-fall-hit-over-4-month-low-cheaper-us-soyoil Открыть/Комментировать

2021-06-14 09:52:45 Открыть/Комментировать

2021-06-11 09:07:21 Malaysia May palm oil exports, stocks miss market expectations

Malaysia's palm oil production and exports missed industry expectations in May, while domestic consumption surged, data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board or MPOB showed June 10.

Palm oil exports fell 6% month on month to 1.265 million mt in May. This was well below the median estimate of 1.345 million mt.

While May exports were projected to fall marginally from April, the slide was steeper than expected. Buying interest has suffered in Asian markets through May as traders stayed on the sidelines due to market talk that Indonesia – the largest producer of palm oil – could announce a $100/mt cut to its export levy.

Production, ending stocks lag
MPOB data showed monthly total production rose 2.8% to 1.571 million mt, from April but was below the industry expectation of 1.582 million mt.

May end stocks at 1.568 million mt were higher than 1.545 million mt a month before but sharply missed the Platts survey estimate of 1.642 million mt. Открыть/Комментировать

2021-06-11 08:59:34 Почему растет импорт пальмового масла и чем это грозит — Российская газета
https://rg.ru/2021/06/10/pochemu-rastet-import-palmovogo-masla-i-chem-eto-grozit.html Открыть/Комментировать