2018-03-11 19:43:51
In the world of serious projects, it is customary to reinsure in full, but Telegram even here beats all. In addition to whitepaper and technical documentation, the standard set of the future happy owner of grams includes a nine-page memorandum describing all the risks. He fell into the hands of Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/8-ways-telegram-thinks-ico-go-wrong/), and, consequently, to us with you.
Here are the eight most interesting items from the document:
1. "Management uncertainty"
"It is difficult to predict how the goverment will regulate such technologies."
As the document notes, goverment can set liquidity requirements for Telegram or recognize grams as an adjustable part of the capital requiring registration. If regulation of a particular country becomes too onerous, Telegram can leave it or completely shut down the project.
2. "Normative and legal factors"
"TON's blockchain technology will work in a new developing regulatory and legal framework. There are no established norms or judicial precedents for blockchain and smart contracts. "
The document also describes that licenses may be required, including those that the state will come up with after selling the TON tokens, but before the system is launched.
3. "Government and business actions"
US regulators such as the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) will rather enforce existing laws than create new ones. According to experts, the largest ICO can get under the close attention of the Commission: Telegram uses SAFT (a simple agreement for future tokens) to execute transactions, which allows to bypass all problem areas in the laws regulating the industry, and as soon as SAFT ceases to satisfy the SEC, the regulator will enter in Game.
4. Development and launch of TON
"Telegram will may not be able to retain programmers with sufficient skills and experience to successfully develop TON and start the system."
5. Risks related to the blockchain
The document notes the risks inherent in any project related to the blockchain system, in particular, errors in the code. Quantum computing can crack encryption, and if global changes are required, nodes may not implement them, and the system will crash.
6. Integration of TON and Telegram
If for some reason the messenger team can't integrate TON into it, "the adoption of grams as a currency within the existing Telegram ecosystem can be limited more than expected"
7. Issuer and use of funds
Telegram has no restrictions on the use of funds, so even if the ICO fails and it will be necessary to return the money, at that time they may not be available.
8. Blockchain may be can't take root
... and this is all without mentioning one of the main risks: that Google or Apple can simply remove Telegram app from for the fact they don't receive anything from financial transactions inside Telegram.
Almost all of the risks voiced by the TON team are highly likely, but I would particularly point out the sixth point: the complexity of integrating TON and Telegram. In order for payments through the messenger to have the potential to become a standard, the product needs to be a leader - either in some country or in some community.
In the case of Pavel Durov's messenger, a hybrid dissemination model: unlike WeChat, which became de facto the standard for China, or the Discord becoming the standard for gamers, Telegram has a fairly limited range of countries and communities where it occupies a leading position: Iran, Uzbekistan, and the crypto community.
The potential is there, but it strongly depends on which model Telegram will move to a greater extent: community or country adoption.
... so if you doubted the success of ICO Durov, relax - not you alone. Durov with you.
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