Predictions Scorecard, 2022 January 01 On January 1st, 2018, | Spark in me

Predictions Scorecard, 2022 January 01

On January 1st, 2018, I made predictions about self driving cars, Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, and about progress in the space industry. Those predictions had dates attached to them for 32 years up through January 1st, 2050.

I made my predictions because at the time I saw an immense amount of hype about these three topics, and the general press and public drawing conclusions about all sorts of things they feared (e.g., truck driving jobs about to disappear, all manual labor of humans about to disappear) or desired (e.g., safe roads about to come into existence, a safe haven for humans on Mars about to start developing) being imminent. My predictions, with dates attached to them, were meant to slow down those expectations, and inject some reality into what I saw as irrational exuberance

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As part of self certifying the seriousness of my predictions I promised to review them, as made on January 1st, 2018, every following January 1st for 32 years, the span of the predictions, to see how accurate they were. This is my fourth annual review and self appraisal, following those of 2019, 2020, and 2021. I am an eighth of the way there! Sometimes I throw in a new side prediction in these review notes..

http://rodneybrooks.com/predictions-scorecard-2022-january-01/

Well, a part about writing for 32 yeas is bs, but so fun to read this stuff!

I remember that something like this actually happened to me. I was offered to get acquainted with "cool guys who will build self-driving cars in Russia". I responded with some criticism saying that Waymo budget is probably all Deep Learning budget of all companies in Russia combined and was ghosted in the conversation.

#no_bs